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@LordOfTheKangs @Humpleupagus @JedDrudge @NotoriousDOG I've been coming across an explanation for why Iran, which claimed to have zillions of missiles that can hit Israel from its own soil, has singularly failed to saturate the deployed ABM systems defending Israel.

To make what that means clear, if you can handle say one hundred relevant incoming warheads in a single wave (no need to protect most of the Negev for example, although you've got to have capability to make that determination), if you face five hundred most will get through.

There's a big bottleneck, launchers. That is, from bunkers etc. missiles are loaded, moved out and launched out in the open. Today the IDF claims they've destroyed over 120, they've shown us lots of precision guided examples, and they believe that's about a third of them.

Come to think of it, the bigger bottleneck for my saturation metric in the current context is the loading process, which is going to be limited by mundane things like handling equipment, and entrances/exits.

And the cat and mouse tension between getting a lot of those launchers out in the open at a single time, and the certainty this will eventually be noticed and the IAF will bag a bunch before you can launch. Like, at some point they switch to guns ... or maybe they're already using them, but aren't releasing footage of that except for drones to not give away details that might be used to shoot down their planes when they get up close and personal.

Also assume the usual Third and Muslim world efficiently problems, and the command and control attacks on who were suppose to be orchestrating all this.

For this to be true you have to assume the previous direct from Iran attacks when the IDF wasn't freely roaming across Western Iran to Tehran were somewhat pro-forma performative, replies to small-ish Israeli attacks rather than a start of a war like the one we're seeing now. That is, the bombing of its Syrian embassy in April 2024, and the assassination on Iranian soil of a Hamas leader in October 2024.

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