Against this backdrop, Fitch forecasts that the overall delinquency rate for U.S. commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) to more than double to 4.9% in 2025, up from 2.3% this year.

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   atomicpoet (atomicpoet@atomicpoet.org)'s status on Friday, 24-May-2024 05:03:05 JST atomicpoet

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   Next year’s forecast is that defaults of commercial real estate is going to double next year to 4.9%.

   Smaller banks that are heavily tied to CMBS are likely to fail. There could be contagion.

   Remember, we have the highest interest rates since the early 2000s—the highest in a generation.

   https://www.investmentexecutive.com/news/research-and-markets/commercial-real-estate-a-growing-risk-fitch/