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Vladimir Dovdanov, "On the independence of the captive peoples and liquidation of the Russian Federation" https://www.liga.net/en/world/opinion/o-nezavisimosti-poraboschennyh-narodov-i-likvidatsii-rossiyskoy-federatsii
Very interesting read. I have no clear opinion on it yet, but it surely broadens the context and increases the complexity of the current Russian-Ukrainian war.
The author provides three scenarios that in his opinion result from the weakening of the Putin regime:
Scenario 1: "stalinization" of Russia; scenario 2: collapse of Russia; scenario 3: involvement of the oppressed nations of the Russian Empire even in the current conflict in Ukraine.
In his view, scenario 1 leads to a continued war in Ukraine; scenario 2 could lead to proliferation of nuclear weapons and a large refugee crisis; scenario 3 could lead to a rather peaceful dissolution of the Russian empire. Furthermore, Scenarios 1 and 2 could lead to a rise of China and only scenario 3 may prevent China's interference in the partition of the crumbling Russian Empire.
«Thus, the need for the West to change the agenda from the previous narrative of preserving the centralized Russian state, essentially an empire, to the independence of the enslaved peoples and helping them, is urgently needed today. Ukraine could, despite the difficult military conditions, more actively and massively attract to its side a resource that has not yet been fully used, namely representatives of non-free non-Russian peoples. Despite the huge Russian propaganda pressure, there are more and more opponents of the Russian empire among them. [...]
We must understand that the Russian liberal so-called opposition, which is in exile abroad, is categorically against the decolonization, disintegration and denuclearization of Russia. Its desire to maintain a centralized state with nuclear weapons under the façade of democracy clearly shows that the Russian liberal opposition was and remains an imperial project. And it is they who today pose the greatest danger to the independence of the captive peoples of the empire, both in the Western political field and in the Russian empire itself. From the rhetoric of Khodorkovsky, Milov, members of Navalny's team and other Russian pseudo-liberals, we know that such a threat really exists.»
#Ukraine #Russia #imperialism #decolonization #indigenous