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   🇵🇸 gangster's parasite 🇺🇦 (big_louse@todon.eu)'s status on Saturday, 05-Aug-2023 00:11:54 JST 🇵🇸 gangster's parasite 🇺🇦

   When you have polls that say that #Biden wins by 2 percent without #CornelWest, but then he loses with West getting 2-5%, this seems to support the 'spoiler' narrative. But this falls apart under scrutiny.

   Aside from the fact such polls are increasingly unreliable because of changes in demographics and media landscape, and the election is over a year a way, and we don't even know if Trump will be the GOP nominee -- he very likely will be in jail either way...

   What you have in these polls is a captive population: the voter turnout in these polls is static. But in an actual election, turnout is highly dynamic and influenced by a variety of factors. Over the past 40 years voter turnout has varied by as high as 10% or more. Which totally knocks out the "spoiler" margin. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnout_in_United_States_presidential_elections

   There are other factors that can't be measured that any responsible analyst should mention. For example, the presence of 3rd party candidates will obviously motivate a margin of people who wouldn't otherwise vote at all. Likewise the presence of more options may also lead to greater engagement in the population as a whole whole, leading to greater turnout in support of the 2 major parties.

   #Democrats need to stop spreading #misinformation