Graphic that illustrates how the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is weakening, and what the impacts could be.

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   Bread and Circuses (breadandcircuses@climatejustice.social)'s status on Thursday, 27-Jul-2023 00:21:10 JST Bread and Circuses

   Yeah, this is NOT good news...
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   The Gulf Stream system could collapse as soon as 2025, a new study suggests. The shutting down of the vital ocean currents, called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (Amoc) by scientists, would bring catastrophic climate impacts.

   The new analysis estimates a timescale for the collapse of between 2025 and 2095, with a central estimate of 2050, if global carbon emissions are not reduced.

   A collapse of Amoc would have disastrous consequences around the world, severely disrupting the rains that billions of people depend on for food in India, South America, and west Africa. It would increase storms and drop temperatures in Europe, and lead to a rising sea level on the eastern coast of North America. It would also further endanger the Amazon rainforest and Antarctic ice sheets.

   “I think we should be very worried,” said Prof Peter Ditlevsen, at the University of Copenhagen in Denmark, and who led the new study. “This would be a very, very large change. The Amoc has not been shut off for 12,000 years.”

   The Amoc collapsed and restarted repeatedly in the cycle of ice ages that occurred from 115,000 to 12,000 years ago. It is one of the climate tipping points scientists are most concerned about as global temperatures continue to rise.

   Research in 2022 showed five dangerous tipping points may already have been passed due to the 1.1C of global heating to date, including the shutdown of Amoc, the collapse of Greenland’s ice cap, and an abrupt melting of carbon-rich permafrost.

   The most recent assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that Amoc would not collapse this century. But Divlitsen said the models used have coarse resolution and are not adept at analysing the non-linear processes involved, which may make them overly conservative.

   Prof Stefan Rahmstorf, at the University of Potsdam, Germany, said: “There is still large uncertainty where the Amoc tipping point is, but the new study adds to the evidence that it is much closer than we thought. A single study provides limited evidence, but when multiple approaches have led to similar conclusions this must be taken very seriously, especially when we’re talking about a risk that we really want to rule out with 99.9% certainty. Now we can’t even rule out crossing the tipping point in the next decade or two.”
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   FULL STORY -- https://archive.li/CPXqF#selection-1311.0-1311.159

   For another perspective on what may or may not be happening, see this thread by Eleanor Frajka-Williams (@EleanorFrajka) -- https://fediscience.org/@EleanorFrajka/110778831531231369

   #Science #Environment #Climate #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #ClimateEmergency