CelloMom On Cars
"Europe must strive for bolder renewable energy targets to protect the climate, despite making world-record progress."
The report found that global renewable capacity additions reached 582 GW last year.
[Needed:] 1,122 GW of renewable capacity must be added every year from 2025 onward."
CelloMom On Cars
"The IEA slashed in half its forecast for US renewable energy growth by 2030.
The reduction compared to last year’s analysis is due to several policy changes imposed under President Donald Trump, the IEA said. Those include the early phaseout of federal tax credits for clean energy installations, import restrictions, suspension of new offshore wind leases and permit restrictions for solar and wind projects on federal land."
CelloMom On Cars
The energy transition could be going faster:
"Global renewable power capacity is now expected to rise by 4,600 GW by 2030 - down from the six-year forecast of 5,500 GW in 2024
The downward revision is mainly due to an early phase-out of U.S. federal tax incentives and other regulatory changes - lowering the IEA's U.S. growth expectations by almost 50% - while China's shift from fixed tariffs to competitive auctions is squeezing project economics.
CelloMom On Cars
Here is the difference between IEA outlooks under current policies (blue lines), and taking into account countries' stated climate ambitions (pink lines).
https://www.ft.com/content/8696254d-1873-434a-96be-88aa690f9b75
These graphs say that increased oil and gas is a choice not an inevitability.
The fossil fuel industry will push hard to keep the world on track on the blue lines.
Our job is to push our governments to steer us on the pink lines. Lower than the pink lines, if we can. It's DIY lobbying now, at every step. Let's go!
CelloMom On Cars
BUT ALSO:
"IEA's current policies scenario shows no oil demand peak before 2050.
This scenario takes into account existing government policies and not aspirations to achieve climate goals.
The IEA last used the "current policies scenario" for its predictions in 2019 and switched to predictions more in line with a clean energy transition and pledges of reaching net zero emissions by mid-century from 2020.
This year's outlook ditched the pledges scenario."
CelloMom On Cars
"The world is expected to build more renewable energy projects in the next five years than has been rolled out over the last 40, according to the flagship annual report from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
It also points to a “renaissance” for nuclear power, driven by major tech companies seeking a steady supply of low-carbon electricity to power their datacentres."
CelloMom On Cars
EMBER report:
21%
Average annual growth rate of renewable additions needed from 2023 to 2030 to meet a tripling of renewable capacity.
29%
Actual annual growth rate of renewables additions from 2023 to 2025.
But also:
National renewable targets still aim for just over a doubling, falling short of a tripling.
CelloMom On Cars
Anybody who has been following the development of renewable energy has seen how wildly off the IEA prognosis has been when it took into account only existing policies.
"Missing the mark" doesn't begin to describe it; they seemed not to know where the mark even was.
The IEA just went back to doing things that way. The honest thing would be to do both CPS and STEP scenarios. But the pressure from the biggest sponsor.
CelloMom On Cars
Why do the IEA scenarios matter?
"The IEA’s Current Policies Scenario (CPS) was produced following fierce criticism by Trump's pro-fossil fuel administration.
Many of the CPS’s assumptions are highly questionable, such as the expectation of a sharp slowdown in global sales of electric vehicles and smaller gains in petrol car efficiencies."
If you believe the CPS scenario, as an investor you may miss out on big opportunities.
CelloMom On Cars
"Renewables are now so cheap that the clean energy transition is no longer an economic burden, it is a momentous opportunity.
[Renewables] are also a powerful engine of investment, jobs and growth. They are reshaping the global economy."
https://theconversation.com/renewable-energy-is-reshaping-the-global-economy-new-report-268676
CelloMom On Cars
Google has quietly shut down the curating of climate change news.
This rubric used to yield a long list of news items related to climate.
Now, an empty page.
CelloMom On Cars
"After a year of talks, COP30 host Brazil on Wednesday laid out a plan to scale climate finance to $1.3 trillion a year.
The near 100-page document, dubbed the Baku to Belem Roadmap, follows months of talks with stakeholders since the close of last year's event in Azerbaijan."
CelloMom On Cars
Bank unveils green loans plan to unlock trillions for #ClimateFinance
"An innovative plan to use public money to back renewable energy loans in the developing world could liberate cash from the private sector for urgently needed climate finance.
The plan, which is being pioneered by the IADB, would involve getting taxpayer-funded development banks to buy existing loans to green projects in poor countries, which would [attract] investment from private sector lenders."
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2025/jun/16/public-money-green-loans-climate-finance
CelloMom On Cars
"From cutting emissions to protecting forests, and strengthening adaptation finance and early warning systems, here are six issues delegates are expected to grapple with in Belém. "
https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/six-issues-will-dominate-cop30
CelloMom On Cars
Could the US, despite its absence, still scotch #COP30?
"Some governments are particularly nervous after the Trump administration intervened to sink a deal last month at the International Maritime Organization that would have resulted in a world-first carbon fee on shipping.
One of the European officials said their priority would be for countries to rally together to present a united COP30 front against any anti-climate interventions from the U.S."
CelloMom On Cars
Reframing "debt":
"To confront this crisis together, we need resources. And we must recognise that the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities remains the foundation of any climate pact.
The global south demands greater access to resources – not out of charity, but justice. Rich countries have benefited the most from the carbon-based economy. They must now rise to their responsibilities, not only by making commitments but by honouring their debts."
CelloMom On Cars
"Rich countries have lost enthusiasm for combating the climate crisis while China is surging ahead in producing and using clean energy equipment, the president of the UN climate talks said.
“Somehow the reduction in enthusiasm of the global north is showing that the global south is moving,” Corrêa do Lago told reporters in Belém, where #COP30 is taking place. “It is not just this year, it has been moving for years, but it did not have the exposure that it has now.”"
CelloMom On Cars
"Our analysis finds that countries party to the Paris Agreement are increasingly including action on super pollutants as part of the suite of strategies integrated in their NDCs.
Compared to pre-2020 NDCs the number of latest NDCs covering methane, nitrous oxide, HFCs has increased by 22%, 22%, and 61% respectively."
CelloMom On Cars
"After three decades of annual conferences, global emissions are still rising – and critics say the process is failing.
But that misses the point. Emissions are rising much more slowly now than they would have been without the UN regime.
In 2009, the world faced up to 6°C of warming.
Before the Paris agreement in 2015, the “business as usual” forecast was down to around 4°C. Today, the UN projects that without additional policies, the world will warm by around 2.5°C"
CelloMom On Cars
Are climate talks and climate policy failing?
In short: No.
"In instance after instance, sober realists have been proved wrong, while the wildest hopes of campaigners have been exceeded.
The problem is not that we fail to hit the objectives we set for ourselves. It’s that the drumbeat of bad-faith nihilism encourages us to forget the progress we’ve already made, and lower our ambitions for the future."
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-11-13/how-the-world-is-quietly-winning-on-climate
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