Notices by Daniel Swain (weatherwest@mastodon.social)

Out today: a brief piece in JAMA, targeted primarily toward raising awareness among clinicians, on rising incidence of #coccidioidomycosis ("valley fever" illness caused by Coccidioides fungus) in western U.S. amid a warming #climate. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2830685

Surface soils in the western U.S. have already become drier, on average & in the extremes, due to higher temperatures and increased "air thirstiness" (evaporative demand) caused by #ClimateChange. That alone might expand cocci endemicity, but there may be another factor at play.

The causative fungal organism typically thrives when soil conditions transition rapidly from wet-to-dry states, favoring a so-called "grow and blow" cycle wherein fungus first grows in damp soil then is aerosolized during windy conditions once soil dries, & humans inhale spores.

This increase is likely due to a combination of factors, including increased clinician awareness (and thus confirmatory diagnoses), but there also appears to be a true increase in actual human infections as well.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2830685

Coccidioidomycosis, which can become a serious and systemic/chronic condition in some (but not all) affected, is widely under-diagnosed (by factor of 10 or more), and incidence has sharply increased in recent years (especially in California). https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2830685

Since fungus grows best in wet conditions, but aerosolizes & spreads in dry ones, rapid transitions between wet &dry are arguably the "worst climate for cocci." Well, as I've recently discussed, increasing hydroclimate whiplash is precisely what we expect: https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-024-00624-z

BTW, if you work in the weather/climate/disaster/emergency management space and are/were a federal employee who has been fired in recent hours/days, there are multiple journalists interested in speaking to you (and will be watching replies on this thread).

Related to mass federal firings today: If anyone out there in private sector has a need for a highly-qualified PhD-level wildfire risk modeler (or MS/PHD-level meteorologist), available immediately, please do reach out via email or DM! (Not for me, but trying to help others out.)

Early signs of *potentially* concerning heavy rain event in SoCal wildfire zones next week (~Feb 14). *Uncertainty is high,* & range of outcomes at this early juncture is from virtually nothing to high-end flash flood/debris flow threat. But consider this an early heads-up. #CAwx

The warm, moist, and slow-moving atmospheric river has lifted back northward (temporarily, and as expected) as a frontal wave causes a classic "windshield wiper effect" over NorCal. But heavier rain is now moving back southward as cold front approaches... #CAwx #CAwater

Tomorrow's SF Bay Area rainfall will feature much heavier downpours and even (briefly) torrential ones, with some urban/creek flooding possible. Isolated thunderstorms, some stronger and possibly containing very gusty winds and intense convective downpours, are also likely. #CAwx

On Tue, a modest surface low will spin up offshore west of San Francisco. This will induce "frontogenesis" (cold frontal strengthening) as the system approaches the Bay Area--likely resulting in a "sporty" cold frontal passage in portions of northern/central CA. #CAwx

The amount of precip was enough to climb ahead of former driest start to season on record in some (but not all) parts of SoCal. But overall, this remains an exceptionally dry winter; without more rain, fire risk could reemerge in 10-14 days if SA winds return. [3/3] #CAwx #CAfire

Conditions will dry out/warm up considerably as this low departs. It appears SoCal will stay dry again for at least 9-10 days, with modest chance of more showers around Feb 6 but equal chance of another long dry period. Better odds of rain in NorCal, though. [2/3] #CAwx #CAfire

Well, that sure was a much-needed rain event for SoCal! Most places saw a solid soaking rain of half an inch to an inch of rain (or its liquid equivalent as snow in higher mountains). Debris flows did occur near Malibu/Topanga, but nothing terrible. Good news! [1/3] #CAwx #CAfire

I very strongly encourage folks to check out this long-form conversation I had with Adam Conover on his Factually! podcast (recorded just two days ago) focusing on offering context and busting myths surrounding the devastating Los Angeles #wildfires.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9P2O1F_6ikY

Unfortunately a new, wind-driven fire (mainly burning in grass and brush) to report: #KennethFire, headed for LA/Ventura County like. Oak Park and surrounding communities at risk as wind pushes this fire quickly to west and south under continued Red Flag Warning. #CAwx #CAfire

A brief note: I have been overwhelmed with media and other requests (over 300 since Tuesday) regarding the (ongoing) Southern CA wildfire disasters. I'm currently battling both an upper respiratory infection and an autoinflammatory flare. Thank you for your continued patience and understanding!

An open call to anyone at YouTube/Google: During my livestreams this week covering the SoCal wildfires, YouTube dropped the livestream on two occasions with a notice that I was showing copyrighted content. [1/3]

An unusual retrograding (westward-moving) low pressure system will move southwest-ward over SoCal, bringing a multi-day stretch of moderate to strong downslope winds. With very strong upper support, strong winds to extend to areas that don't usually see them. #CAwx #CAfire [2/3]