Notices by Augie Ray (augieray@mastodon.social)

There is no evidence that #COVID19 is beginning a surge at this point. The WastewaterSCAN dashboard has bounced around a little, but the overall trend has been stable. The positive rate of testing has also been very stable and low.

Not only are both of these at the lowest level in five years, but they are also steadier than they've ever been. Since 2020, COVID has always been in flux, rising or falling every week, but the situation has been extraordinarily steady for almost two months now.

New wastewater data from the CDC: No sign of the US summer #COVID19 surge—yet.

The NWSS data (as of 6/6) shows no upward trend. Every state still at very low activity except MS (moderate) and LA (low).
https://www.cdc.gov/wastewater/respiratory-viruses/national.html?cove-tab=1

Biofire still shows no upward trend in positive rate.
https://www.syndromictrends.com/

But there may be EARLY signs of an upward trend on WastewaterSCAN. Recent data (as of 6/8) may suggest an uptick, but we need to see if this is a trend.

https://data.wastewaterscan.org/tracker?charts=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%3D&selectedChartId=f5efc9

1/2

A study may suggest that #COVID19 is running out of evolutionary room—with some caveats. (I am an informed person, not an expert, so take my interpretation with care.)

The study notes, "Could another drastic event change the mutation landscape again? At least from the stability of Omicron mutations under our HSS and LSS (high- and low-stringency selection) conditions the answer is no. However, a drastic shift in evolutionary pressure could change this prediction."

What does this mean? 1/4

COVID may be running out of steam to evolve and overcome our defenses. There are still risks that could cause a major saltation and could cause more serious waves of infections, but this research seems to indicate Omicron is the natural destination for SARS-CoV-2, at least when it comes to the receptor
binding domain (RBD) on the Spike (S) of the virus. Might this be COVID's end-game? Time will tell, I guess.

https://phys.org/news/2026-06-lab-evolution-recreates-covid-path.html

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-72312-z

What does the quote in my first post (about if we could see a significant change in the mutation landscape) mean?

This implies the natural evolution isn't likely to alter current trends, given Omicron's dominance. However, some rare situations might occur, such as zoonotic spillover (from animals) or agentic shift (different strains combining in an individual.) Low vaccination rates might also change evolutionary pressure, but we may have enough immunity to prevent that.

3/4

The researchers found that strong selection pressure starting with the Wuhan wildtype virus causes the virus to develop into Omicron—which means their tests aligned with the reality of what has occurred. And when they tested different COVID variants, they also evolved into Omicron. It seems Omicron is the most humanized of COVID variants.

Does this tell us anything about the future of #COVID19? The study hints at this (and again, take my interpretation cautiously.) 2/4

When a clown moves into a palace, he doesn't become a king. The palace becomes a circus.

I don't know about you, but I think it should concern us that the President of the United States is losing his mind. This is a real post from Truth Social.

Ah, yes, the return of free speech, where you can punch down on women, the disabled, the LGBTQ community, and people of color with slurs. But don't you dare make a joke on late-night TV, post about military law, ask the president a valid question during a presser, share an unflattering photo of a Cabinet member, or criticize the president, because that's treason!

The Southern Poverty Law Center does excellent work fighting hate groups. Republicans have long complained that the SPLC is overly leftist and partisan because the #SPLC investigates and reports on white supremacist groups. I have been a longtime supporter of the SPLC and could immediately see the BS in the Trump DOJ's indictment of the SPLC this week. 1/2

https://www.justsecurity.org/137171/indictment-southern-poverty-law-center-splc/

Trump is picking a fight with the Pope. Trump is losing that fight.

Just read a study that noted, “Unvaccinated residents showed higher hazards for transitioning to COVID death.” I am not sure that I've seen “dying” framed in such a delicate way.

“Is he dying, doctor?”
“No, he is merely transitioning to death.”

The Bible warned Christians of the way their faith would be manipulated.

For such people are false apostles, deceitful workers, masquerading as apostles of Christ. And no wonder, for Satan himself masquerades as an angel of light. It is not surprising, then, if his servants also masquerade as servants of righteousness. Their end will be what their actions deserve.
2 Corinthians 11:13-15

This Easter, people of faith must consider who follows Jesus's teachings: MAGA or Woke? 1/2

It would be funny if it weren't so sad and dangerous.

Marco Rubio on Monday: “Imagine an Iran that, instead of spending their wealth, billions of dollars, supporting terrorists or weapons, had spent that money helping the people of Iran.”

Donald Trump on Wednesday: “It’s not possible for us to take care of day care, Medicaid, Medicare, all these individual things… We have to take care of one thing: military protection. We have to guard the country.”

Irony is dead.

And yet, everything seems pretty normal today, doesn't it? We gripe about higher prices at the pump and longer lines at airport security, but life is chugging along as if it's normal.

Remember how normal everything felt in early March 2020 and how rapidly the world changed in the six weeks that followed? We may again be in a period like that.

7/x

US taxpayers will need to foot the bill, and the deficit will rise even further. For example, the US has already fired around 25% of its inventory of Tomahawk missiles in Iran, and at current production levels, it will take as much as 9 years to replace those missiles. A longer war, significant disruptions, businesses closing, jobs lost, more needless death, and even greater economic and geopolitical disturbances.

6/x

Within weeks, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will start causing real and long-lasting damage, such as shortages of medication and exploding costs for fertilizer this planting season. Gas prices will go even higher. Food prices will rise. Airlines will cancel flights. Shipping costs will get even pricier. Businesses will close temporarily due to shortages, and some will shutter permanently because they cannot sustain themselves through the disruptions.

3/x

(Even in retrospect, people still can't perceive it, with a growing collective amnesia about how bad things really got and the belief we “overreacted” to overflowing morgues and a million dead Americans.)

But, if you're really paying attention to the news—not just the headlines or the rhetoric—we're again at a precipice of something incredibly disruptive. People think we've seen the worst of our war with Iran, given how gas prices have spiked. That is simply the tiniest tip of the spear.

2/x

I feel like I did in February and March 2020, only this time, it's about the war in Iran rather than a novel virus. Big things are coming, and too few care to acknowledge or believe it.

In February and March 2020, I was one of a few people warning what the “novel coronavirus” was about to do. People wouldn't (or couldn't) listen because no one could conceive of businesses closing, conferences canceled, or hospitals bursting.

1/x