Notices by Augie Ray (augieray@mastodon.social)

Ah, yes, the return of free speech, where you can punch down on women, the disabled, the LGBTQ community, and people of color with slurs. But don't you dare make a joke on late-night TV, post about military law, ask the president a valid question during a presser, share an unflattering photo of a Cabinet member, or criticize the president, because that's treason!

The Southern Poverty Law Center does excellent work fighting hate groups. Republicans have long complained that the SPLC is overly leftist and partisan because the #SPLC investigates and reports on white supremacist groups. I have been a longtime supporter of the SPLC and could immediately see the BS in the Trump DOJ's indictment of the SPLC this week. 1/2

https://www.justsecurity.org/137171/indictment-southern-poverty-law-center-splc/

Trump is picking a fight with the Pope. Trump is losing that fight.

Just read a study that noted, “Unvaccinated residents showed higher hazards for transitioning to COVID death.” I am not sure that I've seen “dying” framed in such a delicate way.

“Is he dying, doctor?”
“No, he is merely transitioning to death.”

The Bible warned Christians of the way their faith would be manipulated.

For such people are false apostles, deceitful workers, masquerading as apostles of Christ. And no wonder, for Satan himself masquerades as an angel of light. It is not surprising, then, if his servants also masquerade as servants of righteousness. Their end will be what their actions deserve.
2 Corinthians 11:13-15

This Easter, people of faith must consider who follows Jesus's teachings: MAGA or Woke? 1/2

It would be funny if it weren't so sad and dangerous.

Marco Rubio on Monday: “Imagine an Iran that, instead of spending their wealth, billions of dollars, supporting terrorists or weapons, had spent that money helping the people of Iran.”

Donald Trump on Wednesday: “It’s not possible for us to take care of day care, Medicaid, Medicare, all these individual things… We have to take care of one thing: military protection. We have to guard the country.”

Irony is dead.

And yet, everything seems pretty normal today, doesn't it? We gripe about higher prices at the pump and longer lines at airport security, but life is chugging along as if it's normal.

Remember how normal everything felt in early March 2020 and how rapidly the world changed in the six weeks that followed? We may again be in a period like that.

7/x

US taxpayers will need to foot the bill, and the deficit will rise even further. For example, the US has already fired around 25% of its inventory of Tomahawk missiles in Iran, and at current production levels, it will take as much as 9 years to replace those missiles. A longer war, significant disruptions, businesses closing, jobs lost, more needless death, and even greater economic and geopolitical disturbances.

6/x

Within weeks, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will start causing real and long-lasting damage, such as shortages of medication and exploding costs for fertilizer this planting season. Gas prices will go even higher. Food prices will rise. Airlines will cancel flights. Shipping costs will get even pricier. Businesses will close temporarily due to shortages, and some will shutter permanently because they cannot sustain themselves through the disruptions.

3/x

(Even in retrospect, people still can't perceive it, with a growing collective amnesia about how bad things really got and the belief we “overreacted” to overflowing morgues and a million dead Americans.)

But, if you're really paying attention to the news—not just the headlines or the rhetoric—we're again at a precipice of something incredibly disruptive. People think we've seen the worst of our war with Iran, given how gas prices have spiked. That is simply the tiniest tip of the spear.

2/x

I feel like I did in February and March 2020, only this time, it's about the war in Iran rather than a novel virus. Big things are coming, and too few care to acknowledge or believe it.

In February and March 2020, I was one of a few people warning what the “novel coronavirus” was about to do. People wouldn't (or couldn't) listen because no one could conceive of businesses closing, conferences canceled, or hospitals bursting.

1/x

That means this costly war will leave Iran with more radical leadership and in a stronger economic position, and the US will be in greater danger of terrorist attacks and with permanently higher prices. And that's the BEST-case scenario—but at least things will seem fairly normal.

Things only get worse if that doesn't happen. The Trump administration is sending more troops to the Middle East and is reportedly drawing up plans for a ground invasion.

5/x

Helium needed to run MRI machines will be in short supply. Some countries in the developing world could see a 50% reduction in their harvests compared with prior years due to fertilizer shortages, causing food crises and more mass migration.

At this point, the best-case scenario we can hope for is that Trump walks away from the war. He'll claim victory, but he'll leave Iran controlling the Straits of Hormuz, and Iran will almost assuredly charge tolls to raise money to recover.

4/x

I get that some of you absolutely won't visit X/Twitter for any reason, and I respect that. However, there is something worth reading on that platform. A profile I don't know (Gandalv / @Microinteracti1) wrote a profoundly moving and thoughtful essay about Donald Trump, Robert Mueller, and what the U.S. has become. It is worth five minutes of your time, I promise you.

https://x.com/Microinteracti1/status/2035444431290093818

My weekly update on #COVID19 in the US:

- The spring lull has arrived!
- COVID fell to low or very low viral activity in all 4 regions.
- 2 states still have high viral activity; 7 more have moderate. More than half are at very low activity.
- The positive rate of testing is lower than its been in a year.
- Summer surges typically start in late May to early July. The West could expect a more powerful summer surge this year.

https://medium.com/@augieray_66704/covids-spring-lull-arrives-update-for-march-20-2026-73a41cad446d

These trends could reverse due to plunging vaccinations or COVID mutations.

We know reinfections add to the risks of chronic health. My spreadsheet of studies on COVID's adverse impact on long-term health is nearing 3,300 studies.

I believe taking precautions is important, particularly when risks are high. I also think it's critical that people enjoy life, which means balancing risks and benefits. I don't isolate; I take care. I try to minimize, not eliminate, risks.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12VbMkvqUF9eSggJsdsFEjKs5x0ABxQJi5tvfzJIDd3U/edit?usp=sharing

Two things can be true simultaneously:

COVID surges are growing less severe, but #COVID19 remains a risk for acute and chronic illness.

Based on wastewater, half as many people were infected in winter 2023/24 as in winter 2021/22.

40% fewer people were infected in winter 2024/25 than in winter 2023/24.

And 1/3 fewer people were infected in winter 2025/26 than in winter 2024/25.

1/2

Yes, MAGA, you voted for this. Trump on gas prices: “If they rise, they rise.”

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trump-rising-gas-prices-during-iran-operation-if-they-rise-they-rise-2026-03-05/

My latest update on #COVID19 in the US:

- Nationally, COVID dropped to low viral activity for the first time since December

- Viral activity remains moderate in the Midwest and Northeast. Seven state have high viral activity: AL, DE, IL, ME, MN, MI, NE.

- Signs point to a continued slow slide in COVID risks in the coming months.

https://medium.com/@augieray_66704/covid-falls-to-low-viral-activity-in-the-u-s-update-for-march-6-2025-f77ec5966bac