Notices by delong (delong@mastodon.social)

The $2 Trillion Greater-Fool bet as people try to read SpaceX’s S‑1 with a straight face: illiquidity, unlimited disclosures, & other jokes in the SpaceX IPO story:

**Bloomberg Reporters & Editors Have Some Wry Fun with Their SpaceX IPO Story: LAUGH OF THE HOUR**
< https://braddelong.substack.com/p/bloomberg-reporters-and-editors-have >
2026-05-21

As Noah Smith correctly writes: "ICE's brutality stems partly from unprofessionalism and low recruitment standards. But a lot of it is simply that ICE agents are being recruited from people who sincerely believe that they're engaged in an existential race war". And JD Vance lies outright. Fortunately, Noah sees signs that "even... the kind of “tech right” types that are usually [Vance's] fans" find him many bridges too far. But we are in big trouble: After Trump MAGA will be defined by... 1/

... <https://www.noahpinion.blog/cp/184220785> 3/END

...Great Replacement ideology. And JD Vance has decided to become its leader. We must fight 100% against that future. Yes, Benjamin Franklin wrote that even Germans were too swarthy, & America should be reserved for White & Red. But that vision of America lost 250 years ago. It must never be allowed back:

**CROSSPOST: NOAH SMITH: Why are federal agents gunning down Americans in the streets?**
The shooting of Renee Good, like all of the ICE abuses, is symptomatic of a deeper mental illness… 2/

More Lies About Trade Tariffs From the Chaos Monkeys
How can it be that imposing tariffs did not cause inflation or reduce affordability, but that removing tariffs will reduce inflation and increase affordability? It makes no sense. But it is not supposed to. The point is not to make a coherent argument, but to provide talking points that corrupt media can flash on screens to convince the uninformed to follow someone they portray as a leader doing something...
<https://braddelong.substack.com/p/more-lies-about-trade-tariffs-from>

Politics as Making Hardwood Furniture with Dull Tools: Mamdani's NYC Primary Win Is Not a Win, But Only an Uncertain High-Stakes Bet
The Democratic primary is just the preseason, in that it does not count at all. A clear-eyed view of this is essential for successfully building coalitions and avoiding catastrophes: what Max Weber and John Maynard Keynes have to say to overenthusiastic supporters of Zohran Mamdani…
<https://braddelong.substack.com/p/politics-as-making-hardwood-furniture>
2025-06-26 Th

I Have Reached My Limit. I Cannot Stand It. Too Much Sanewashing of the Trump Administration Has Broken My Brain
A huge number of journalists continue to talk about a “Trump administration” with things called “policies” that it “plans”. They know better. They should act better…
https://braddelong.substack.com/p/i-have-reached-my-limit-i-cannot

...& how did it become the most effective civilization at expanding its citizen base since the Romans? & how did it become a feminist-friendly economy—or did it? Was the New Deal Order a design or an accident, & was it a success or a failure, & was its 1970s end a mercy or a mistake? Where and how and what Silicon Valley? What happened to equality of opportunity as an ideal? & why could the Neoliberal Order not apply the standard playbook to deal with the 2007-2009 Global Financial Crisis?... 2/

< https://braddelong.substack.com/p/a-draft-syllabus-for-econ-113-american >
What I see as the big questions of American economic history: How is America “exceptional”? What about its comparative & historical situation primed it to become “exceptional”? How did the conquest-expansion economy of the 1700s & 1800s work? How did a country that ought to have been a gigantic resource-exporting Australia become a manufacturing powerhouse instead, or as well? & how did it become THE technological leader & pioneer of mass-production too?... 1/

< https://braddelong.substack.com/p/a-very-peculiar-kind-of-triumph-of > Fact: those with justified true beliefs about the state of issues like crime, inflation, immigration, and the state of the stock market overwhelmingly supported Harris. So did Trump voters believe lies because Trump told them to, or were they Trump voters because they believed lies? And how do Republicans—for we Democrats cannot do it, as a key part of the structure of misinformation is that nothing we say can be believed—who want a better politics and a better... 1/

...&, largely, fail...
< https://braddelong.substack.com/p/truly-sundowning-in-america-donald >
2024-10-15 Tu 2/END

< https://braddelong.substack.com/p/truly-sundowning-in-america-donald > You cannot rely on print-journalist stories or TV news-reporter & anchor snippets if you want to get a sense of how Donald Trump is out of it—unable to follow his own chain of thought for more than a minute:

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Truly Sundowning in America: Donald Trump Is Not Well at All
The print-media sanewashing of this event is very strong. Watch the whole thing. Especially watch Dakota Governor Noem try to orient Trump to time, place, activity, what to do next—&... 1/

Yes, Adam Smith discovered and built a huge hammer in his theory of the self-regulating market. But he did not thereafter think everything was a nail: his skepticism with respect to the doctrine of leaving everything to the market was profound:

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NOTE: The Limits in Adam Smith's "Wealth of Nations" of his Attachment to Laissez-Faire
Tucking this away here so that I will be able to find it easily later…
< https://braddelong.substack.com/p/note-the-limits-in-adam-smiths-wealth >
2024-08-07 We

What Factors Do We See That Might Upend America's Soft Macroeconomic Landing?
Hint: the big threatening factor is not that the Federal Reserve is likely to reduce interest rates too much too soon. It is, rather, the threat of a Trump-led Fed War next year...
< https://braddelong.substack.com/p/what-factors-do-we-see-that-might >
2024-05-15 We