Notices by Sean Casten (seancasten@mastodon.social), page 2

The House GOP is still doing this.

There is something amusing about an outer borough guy who couldn’t make it in NY in the 80s (see: multiple bankruptcies, banks dropping him) now standing on (digital) street corners, hawking knock-off Jordans, watches and counterfeit currency, nervously watching for police. 3 card monte can’t be far behind…

I promised I'd say more about this. We need to talk about the financial regulation portions Trump's Project 2025 and why they are inimical to capitalism, free markets and would destroy the US economy. Thread:

To everyone asking "what are Harris' chances? Is it going to be close?", here's the deal: if you commit yourself to the work she will win in a landslide. If you don't, she'll lose by a little. You have agency. Don't leave anything on the field.

10. Remember - Donny Bankruptcy got started when his dad bought a bunch of casino chips and didn’t redeem them. He lost money running a casino. He is not good at business. He is good at cheating. https://www.motherjones.com/2020-elections/2020/09/trump-files-fred-trump-funneled-cash-donald-using-casino-chips/

9. That means we should be paying really close attention to the volume traded over the next week. (bars on this chart).

8. We know that malign foreign actors understand that Trump is financially compromised and that he is easily manipulated. They know he’s cash strapped and has access to $2B IF he can find a buyer for his (otherwise soon-to-be) penny stock.

6. He owns something that is devoid of fundamental value that he can monetize for something north of $0 only if he screws existing shareholders. If you are holding on the assumption that he won’t do that, you are the proverbial fish at the poker table.

4. But that’s still $2B more than the average Joe. And to be clear, Grifty McGriftface cannot liquidate all at that price IN THE ABSENCE OF FRAUD. There are a little over 200M shares outstanding so his 114M can’t be sold without collapsing the price.

11. Shady foreign actors know this too. They have the internet. And they’ve watched the Russians launder money through his real estate operations for a long time. https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/12/21/how-russian-money-helped-save-trumps-business/

2. What would you pay for a company with $3.4M in revenue, is blowing through $33M of cash per year & has negative earnings? If you said “zero” you’ll agree that #DJT is overvalued. The current $3B market cap is why it is MASSIVELY overvalued. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DJT/key-statistics/

1. A man who owes lots of money to lawyers and adjudicated civil fines could soon be able to start selling some or all of his 114M shares in a company that is a trainwreck as a stock but still massively overvalued. https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2024/09/06/when-can-donald-trump-sell-djt-stock-heres-what-to-know-as-truth-social-hits-new-lows/

OK, Trump got his ass kicked by Harris this week. That’s great but it’s time to move on. Specifically, to the huge national security / malign actor interference risk that Donald John presents as early as a week from tomorrow. Thread:

5. This is the point where we need to stop talking about market fundamentals, logical valuations and rational actor theory. SCOTUS has made it clear that they treat him as above the law, he is a grifter devoid of ethics, hostile foreign actors like him and he owes a lot of $.

3. Markets are not dumb, and the collapse in value in recent months does suggest that the smart money is coming home to roost. Donny John’s stake, once worth $6B will be lucky to be north of $2B when his lock up period clears.

7. But there’s another risk. What the hell is DJT CEO Devin Nunes doing in North Macedonia? https://www.propublica.org/article/trump-media-ceo-devin-nunes-north-macedonia-truthsocial-hristijan-mickoski

Trump’s Project 2025 has some VERY creepy surveillance ideas about women’s pregnancies. Read this passage carefully (from page 455 of their plan).

1. Consider: no one fetishizes Rittenhouse, or Zimmerman, or that rando couple from St. Louis a few years back because of their membership in a well-regulated militia, nor for their hunting or self-defense.

I get variants of this question a lot so let's take it on. Short version: because America's gun policy has always been steeped in a desire for extra-judicial, vigilante justice.

2. No one buys an AR-15 or a bump stock so they can fill their fridge with turkey and venison, or so they can quickly defend against a home invasion. These are weapons of war, designed to kill large numbers of people quickly.