Notices by Simon Evans (drsimevans@mastodon.energy)

The analysis by my colleague Josh Gabbatiss with Sylvia Hayes at Uni of Exeter shows right-leaning newspapers reverting to opposing climate action, having briefly shown (illusory?) support during Boris Johnson's premiership and around COP26

Details:

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-newspaper-editorials-attacked-ed-miliband-relentlessly-throughout-2024/
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NEW ANALYSIS:

Right-leaning UK newspaper editorials have relentlessly attacked energy secretary Ed Miliband since last year's election, calling him "hysterical", a "madman" & "demented"

The papers have also published a record number of editorials opposing climate action…
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Still, gas remained the single-largest source of UK electricity in 2024

At 88TWh, gas was just ahead of wind at 84TWh

NB figures from NESO, which show wind ahead of gas, do not include eg industrial CHP

Wind is likely to firmly overtake gas soon though – see next post
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The UK has cut gas-fired electricity generation by 13% in a decade – even as it was phasing out coal power – thanks to rising renewable output (mainly wind), along with lower demand + higher imports

More on falling demand here: https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-electricity-generation-2018-falls-to-lowest-since-1994

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UK electricity generation from fossil fuels has more than halved in a decade, falling to 91TWh in 2024 – the lowest level since 1955 and making up the lowest ever share of the total, just 29%

Meanwhile, renewable output has more than doubled, up 122% since 2014 to 143TWh
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Notably, UK electricity generation from wind hasn't risen much for a few years

That shouldn't be a big surprise: not much new capacity has been added recently

But with big new offshore windfarms eg Dogger Bank A set to open next year, that's set to change

(Bonus chart!)

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Still, progress to date in cutting CO2 from UK power sector has dramatically boosted benefits of electric heat & transport

🚗an EV had 50% lower lifecycle emissions than petrol in 2014 – now it's 70% better
🏡a home with a heat pump cut CO2 45% in 2014 – now it's 84%
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UK will need much more progress to hit goal of clean power by 2030 (100% of demand + 95% of generation from low-carbon sources)

With demand rising, that means…

🔌more grid
🏗️more renewables
🔋more storage
⚛️🏭more low-carbon flex
🚧more stuff!

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-the-uk-plans-to-reach-clean-power-by-2030/
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UK electricity supplies accounted for 150MtCO2 in 2014

It was less than 40MtCO2 in 2024, a huge 74% reduction

(Includes CO2 embedded in imported electricity + lifecycle of imported biomass)

Power was UK's largest source of CO2 – now it's fifth!

https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-what-does-the-uks-new-biomass-strategy-mean-for-net-zero/
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+++NEW ANALYSIS+++

UK electricity was the cleanest ever in 2024, with emissions per unit falling by more than two-thirds in a decade

Highlights:
🏭end of coal power after 142yrs
🔥fossil fuels at record-low 29% share
🌄renewables at record-high 45%

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-uks-electricity-was-cleanest-ever-in-2024
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A beached whale lies dead on the waterfront in #COP29 host city Baku, against the backdrop of the "Flame Towers" that symbolise Azerbaijan's fossil fuel resources

NEW: We've just fired up our #COP29 text tracker, which should be an *ESSENTIAL* part of your survival kit for the next fortnight

⏱️live updates for new draft texts
📋notes on the key details
🔗easy-to-find links for each iteration

https://www.carbonbrief.org/interactive-tracking-negotiating-texts-at-the-cop29-climate-summit/
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A lot of smart people are talking about this chart, but missing the single most important factor behind the UK's position: Gas

It's a very perplexing omission: Let me explain why
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If this chart says to you "the climate/1.5C was screwed either way", then you've missed a fundamental truth about global warming:

–every fraction of a degree matters
–every tonne of CO2 counts
–every delay makes escalating climate impacts on people + planet harder to avoid

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-trump-election-win-could-add-4bn-tonnes-to-us-emissions-by-2030/

Incredible stat:

A single container ship of solar panels can provide as much electricity as more than 50 large LNG tankers of gas – or 100 large coal ships

There's many more insights in IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2024 – here's a selection 🧵

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