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@blogdiva

The core issue with #Milton is whether that westerly shear that is supposed to boot it east can also entrain dry air into the system enough to weaken it before it makes it to land. It's a close battle, and the difference between landfall as a weakening Cat 2/3 and a still hefty Cat 4.

Also, model runs are trending a bit further down the coast from a direct Tampa Bay hit to between TB and Cape Coral/Fort Myers, which would mean a nuke dodged for Tampa re: storm surge.