@manav if the benefits of the federation / interoperability concepts become visible and users embrace early movers then I think most web based projects / companies will have to adapt and adopt somehow.
It may become the same "network effect" that created walled gardens, but in reverse. If you don't federate you become invisible - people have to explicitly come to you for updates. A bit like its 1994 and somebody is not adopting http but insists building on their huge #gopher service :-)