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@dangillmor Prigozhin is making the same mistake Putin made in February 2022:
1. believed in his own propaganda and in his invincibility;
2. assumed that people carrying out orders on the other side will just welcome him with open arms.

And he will lose. Wagner can be effective on the front, with MoD support, being responsible for a small area of the frontline.

It cannot match all of RU MoD, even if most RU forces are tied in Ukraine.

But it's going to get nasty.