We put forward five key findings based on the latest climate research. The implications of these are profound. I: The rate of global warming accelerated in 2023 - The rate of global warming accelerated in 2023. Scientists meaning the planet may warm more quickly than expected are not yet sure what is the cause, and therefore do not for a given level of greenhouse gases. This would reduce know how much of this is a temporary fluctuation or carbon budgets. It is unclear how much more warming we permanent change/ If this is a permanent change, are committed to post 2030. This is uncertain due to many it reduces the time available to reduce emissions. factors, including ice melt rate decreasing Earth’s albedo, the impact of aerosol cooling, climate tipping points, Tipping points may interact to form economic losses breaching the $1 trillion mark. tipping cascades, that act to further accelerate the rate of warming and climate impacts. 1l An overshoot of the 1.5°C temperature threshold is likely There is an increasing disconnect between current net zero carbon budgets and the 1.5°C temperature goal, with several scientific agencies reporting that levels of global warming in 2023 were close to or already at 1.5°C. An overshoot of the 1.5°C temperature goal by 2030 is increasingly likely and current net zero carbon budgets give a low probability of limiting temperature. We need to re-calibrate carbon budgets, given uncertainty and experience to date.
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